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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."